Table of Contents
Preface
This is my understanding of Taiwan and the potential invasion of Taiwan as of October 2021. For context at the time of writing: China, the US and other western powers are all now propagandizing their citizens to gain political support for a future war. Furthermore, we appear to be on the verge of a global economic recession if not collapse which would make all countries involved want to accelerate an external war to maintain domestic control and unify their national populations.
History of Pre-ROC Taiwan
Taiwan was originally settled native peoples other than Han Chinese. The Han Chinese being what the CCP considers to be true or real, ethnic Chinese. A successful Dutch colony was setup by the East India Trading Company in the 1600s. During that colony’s operation many Han Chinese migrated from mainland China to Taiwan.
In 1683 the colony and entire island where taken by the Qing Dynasty (the last dynasty of China). During the Qing Dynasty’s rule the island was in a constant state of riot and rebellion. The Qing Dynasty surrendered control of Taiwan to Japan in 1895 after losing the First Sino-Japanese war. Japan would rule the island until the Republic of China [Anti-communist Chinese] retreated to it in 1949.
Just as the Qing Dynasty experienced near constant riots, rebellion and guerilla warfare from the Taiwanese natives, Japan did as well. This went on until 1935 when Japan had some success in making the natives more culturally Japanese by introducing 400,000 Japanese settlers and banning native religions and culture.
History of ROC Taiwan
The History of ROC Taiwan starts with the Chinese Civil war that ended the Qing Dynasty. The Republic of China was formed. The ROC sought help from western powers but was rebuffed so they then turned to the soviets. In 1916 the ROC fell into infighting between the factions. The soviets tried to unite the Kuomintang (KNT) and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but failed in doing so. Eventually this led to a full split between the KMT and CCP with most of the left wing KMT members moving over to the CCP.
The civil war between the KMT and the CCP would go on from 1927 through 1949 with the KMT favoring traditional military tactics while the CCP relied heavily on guerilla warfare for most of the civil war until they had enough strength to face the KMT head-on. In 1949 the KMT, representing the Republic of China (ROC), would retreat to Taiwan while the CCP would found the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland.
The ROC would go on to quickly declare martial law in Taiwan in May of 1949. This martial law would last until 1987 when the ROC peacefully transitioned from a military dictatorship to a peaceful multi-party democracy. Under the ROC’s rule the people of Taiwan saw enormous economic and industrial growth becoming one of the most prosperous nations on earth despite it’s existence as a “gray state.”
During the cold war the Soviet Union backed the PRC and the US backed the ROC’s Taiwan. ROC controlled the Chinese seat until 1971 when, with US support, the UN declared that the PRC was the official government of China. Taiwan was invited to stay on as an independent country but, like the PRC, wanted to keep alive the fiction of there only being one China. With that, Taiwan walked out of the UN.
The US officially switched sides to supporting the PRC. However, a split between the executive policy makers and Congress led to maintaining a level of support for Taiwan. In spite of the President’s wishes and those of the State Department, Congress passed a law in 1979 requiring the US to sell weapons to Taiwan as they request them.
Soon after this, the US would open the “American Institute in Taiwan.” This would function as a de facto embassy if not a du jure embassy, allowing the US to maintain unofficial relations without being forced to recognize Taiwan as a country. Most other nations would follow a similar policy due to intense pressure from the PRC with only fifteen other countries recognizing Taiwan as a country independent from the PRC.
President Trump began to push against this policy of treating Taiwan as a “gray state” by officially and publicly meeting with their leaders – the first President in history to do so – and pushing the US government agencies to act more directly and more closely with Taiwan.
President Trump would continue to push the US military to begin reorganizing for a war with China in the pacific. A policy that Biden would continue to advance. Meanwhile Biden’s messaging would be mixed. In moments when Biden was questioned and caught off guard he would publicly declare that the US would go to war to defend Taiwan. These statements would later be walked back by his Press Secretary.
Defensive Geography
Taiwan’s geography is mostly mountainous. Approximately two thirds of the island are sparcely populated mountains with the other third being plains where most of the cities and nation’s inhabitants are located. These mountains lend themselves to Guerilla warfare should the PRC attempt to occupy the island. Taiwan is attempting to modernize their military and defensive plans. As part of that modernization the emphasis is shifting from static emplacements to highly mobile defenses such as towed missile batteries. This will allow Taiwan to move military assets quickly through the mountainous regions where the Chinese will find it difficult to locate and destroy them.
The rocky nature of Taiwan’s shore limit the points at which a sea landing can be accomplished and weather systems in the Straights of Taiwan limit the time of year in which a massive sea landing can take place. High winds, powerful storms and strong currents make it unlikely that a sea landing can be accomplished between late October and April.
Strategic Importance
Taiwan is of both geographic and economic importance to the US and the world.
Geographically it’s a key part of the First Island Chain. This first island chain is a defensive concept that relies on using the islands of Japan, Taiwan and the Phillipines to maintain control of the pacific and keep the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) contained. In doing so it also maintains free trade and travel throughout the seas and pacific ocean.
Should Taiwan fall the PLAN would no longer be contained and could advance, militarily, throughout the Pacific including to the west coast of the United States and Australia. No longer could the world rely on the US Navy keeping the Pacific Ocean safe for trade and travel.
Additionally, this would lead to Japan being effectively surrounded by the PRC and Russia. This would allow the PRC to cut off oil, exports and imports to Japan by cutting off sea lanes and even blockading the country, starving it out. This is notable due to the animosity China feels towards to Japan due to the wrongs Imperial Japan did to them during WW2.
A similar impact would be had on South Korea.
From an economic and industrial perspective, Taiwan produces almost all of the world’s microchips and all of the world’s most advanced microchips. Although recently Taiwan broke ground on a manufacturing facility in the US, this factory will only be a 5nm factory when complete. The existing factories in Taiwan produce the more complex and valuable 3nm chips and they’re currently constructing a 2nm factory.
These factories at a crown jewel of Taiwan and a huge price for Taiwan. It’s likely that Taiwan has plans to destroy these factories in the event of a successful Chinese invasion. It’s equally likely that the PRC has plans to insert Special Forces in advance of a full scale invasion to take control and safe guard these factories.
Of lesser importance, Taiwan is a large exporter of electronics, steel and chemicals.
Why China wants to invade
In addition to the geographic and economic reasons outlined above. We must consider national psychology. The PRC regards China as a rogue province that must be recaptured. It is a loss of face for the PRC that this relatively small island still exists independently, reminding them that their civil war victory was is not complete.
The existence of Taiwan also continues the concept of Two Chinas and can be used to argue that the PRC is not the only China or not even the real China. Most importantly, Xi Jinping sees the capture of Taiwan as a way to ensure his legacy in this history of China.
A successful capture of Taiwan would also be a propoganda victory at home. It would demonstrate the strength of an authoritarian communist state and weakness of a successful, prosperous western democracy cementing the CCP’s political power at home and abroad; perhaps even bringing into question the idea that western liberal democracy is the global ideal and ending the age of western moral dominance.
Furthermore, it would also do tremendous damage to US influence globally and bring more countries under Chinese influence. A successful occupation of Taiwan would demonstrate that the US can’t or won’t protect it’s allies and live up to it’s obligations despite it’s economic, military and nuclear power. Other Asian and pacific nations would see this and immediately move to strike deals and alliances with China lest they eventually fall to China and be forced to accept a lesser deal later on. This could expand into African and South American nations, leading to a new Chinese Empire and the US becoming little more than a regional power in North America and Europe.
When will China invade
The US Navy is predicting China will invade Taiwan sometime between now and 2026. Other intelligence services are more generally estimating that the invasion will occur before 2030. There is a narrow window for China to invade; the PRC needs to modernize and upgrade it’s forces enough to successfully occupy Taiwan.
Keep in mind that China’s military is largely untested and has not relied heavily on technology until the last decade or so. They not only have to develop a modern military quickly, they have to learn to command and control that military quickly. They also need to do this quickly before the US manages to pivot to pacific focus and develops the capabilities to defeat the PLAN. This puts enormous time pressures on the PRC.
The PRC must also consider Taiwan’s defensive plans. Taiwan’s military has historically been underfunded, undertrained and under-armed due to it’s political isolation from the world. Taiwan is modernizing it’s forces now though and designing it’s doctrine explicitly to make a Chinese occupation as painful as possible.
There are also domestic considerations at play. First, in November 2022 the CCP will be meeting. It’s unlikely Xi will want to be distracted by a war during this meeting. Next, China is hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics. It would be an enormous loss of face for China to hold this grand event and then have no one show up because of an invasion. Countering this, China is increasing experiencing economic instability and some social instability because of those economic issues. It’s not impossible that China would advance it’s timeline for invasion to cause it’s population to ‘rally around the flag.’
Externally, China must also invade before the US finishes it’s satellite defense systems. Destroying US satellites will be a key part of any invasion plan because doing so will limit the US’s ability to coordinate and project military power. Once the satellites are protected the US becomes a much more significant military threat to the PRC.
Signs the Chinese are preparing to invade
We’ve seen larger and more frequent incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone. So far doubling in 2021 compared to the flights in 2020. This can be done as a show of force, to collect intelligence on how an enemy will respond to incursions or to make an enemy become accustomed to incursions so that they’re less likely to react immediately on a real attack.
We’ve also seen tests of hypersonic nuclear-capable missles and and increase in the building of both nulcear weapons and nuclear launch silos. This can be understood as a warning to the US and other western powers not to intefere or at least not to bring any potential war back to mainland china if combat happens on Taiwan.
Following that, we’ve increasing seem Chinese state sponsored media openly discuss preemptive nuclear strikes against Japan.
The Chinese government is also successfully propganidizing their population, preparing them for war. The open China of the 90s and early 2000s is gone. Western-friendly schools are being shutdown, western media is more censored than even before, more ex-pats are being forced out unless they propagandize China and Chinese media is focusing more heavily on whipping up a militant nationalist fervor.
China is also strengthening relations with Russia and Iran with the expectation that they will become allies of one sort or another. The US is also seeing a dramatic increase in cyber attacks and a shift in cyber attacks away from information theft and into disabling systems.
A Peaceful surrender
It’s entirely possible that there might be a pre-emptive, negotiated surrender before the invasion happens. China could cut Taiwan a good enough deal that they decide the juice is not worth the squeeze and simply give up. This would prevent the almost inevitable destruction of Taiwanese cities.
Lending some weight to this is that there’s a lack of desire to fight on behalf of Taiwan’s fighting age males at the current time. China has also been working hard to insert Chinese-friendly business and political leaders as well as sway Taiwanese culture through its United Front.
The US troops training the Taiwanese military would indicate the government of Taiwan is ready to fight although it’s less obvious that the Taiwanese people themselves are ready to do the same.